Posts Tagged Public Policy Polling

Trump Keeps Surging in Latest Polls

Donald Trump pollsDonald Trump continues to dominate the field in the latest national poll and his attacks on Sen. Ted Cruz’s eligibility to be president seem to have some legs.

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday finds the real-estate mogul leading the Republican primary with 36% support among Republican voters, a 19-point edge over the Texas senator, who is second at 17%. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has 11%, and all other candidates are in single digits.

The poll also asked voters if they believe Cruz, who was born in Canada to an American mother, is a natural-born citizen and thus eligible for the presidency. While two-thirds said he was, 12% said he was not and 24% weren’t sure.

Monmouth asked the same of Trump for comparison, and found that 91% of Republicans said he’s a natural-born citizen, 2% said he’s not and 7% weren’t sure.

President Barack Obama has also faced steady skepticism about his U.S. citizenship despite the fact that he was born in Hawaii. In a 2014 Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, 19% of Americans said Obama was definitely or probably not a legal U.S. citizen.

For its poll, Monmouth surveyed 1,003 adults by telephone from January 15 to 18, including 385 Republican voters. The Republican sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Polls have continually shown Trump leading the field since this summer, though Cruz has drawn neck-and-neck with the billionaire businessman in Iowa.

In a separate poll, released by Florida Atlantic University was released on Wednesday says Donald Trump is crushing the competition among likely Florida voters.

The Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative says when it comes to likely Floridian Republican voters, Donald Trump draws 47 percent of the vote, Sen. Ted Cruz came in second with 15 percent, and Marco Rubio came in third with 11 percent of likely voters.

In North Carolina, Donald Trump is building his lead according to Public Policy Polling. Its new poll puts him at 38 percent to 16 percent for Ted Cruz, 11 percent for Marco Rubio, 8 percent for Ben Carson, 6 percent each for Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, 4 percent for Chris Christie, 3 percent each for Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul, 2 percent for John Kasich, and 1 percent for Rick Santorum, Tom Jensen writes on the PPP blog.

The survey was done before Sarah Palin’s endorsement, so Trump may still be rising. He was at 33 percent in the state a month ago. The North Carolina primary is March 15. Key endorsements for Rubio haven’t helped him. He’s dropped 3 points.




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Rush predicts return of the Newt

Gingrich New Hampshire

Rush Limbaugh predicted Monday that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich could make what would be his third comeback in the GOP presidential contest.

Telling his listeners that the polls indicated Mitt Romney would likely lose the Michigan primary, the conservative icon said he wouldn’t be surprised if Romney’s demise gives Gingrich yet another opportunity to be frontrunner. Another great performance by Gingrich in a debate could turn the race around once again, Limbaugh said.

“I think there’s a possibility of something happening nobody’s talking about — and that’s the reemergence of Newt. Keep a sharp eye. Anything’s still possible,” Limbaugh said.

“If Romney has trouble in Michigan… Now, Public Policy Polling is a very liberal polling group out of North Carolina. They say that Romney’s gaining ground, and he could well be. A slew of negative ads are being run against Santorum, and they work. Negative ads have always been shown to work, and Romney’s gaining ground back in Michigan. Of course, the Republican establishment would be turned upside down if he loses in Michigan, because that’s his what, second or third home state? And his dad was governor there. …

Limbaugh pointed out that a number of news accounts have pointed out that GOP candidates, to be successful in Michigan, would have to say they supported the auto bailout of Chrysler and General Motors. One reason Romney is doing so bad in the polls is that he, the son of former auto industry chief and Michigan governor, has consistently said that the Obama administration should have let the automakers go bankrupt.

“If Romney falters in Michigan, the guy to look at as perhaps having a chance to get back in this big time is Newt Gingrich,” Limbaugh said. “Do you realize there hasn’t been a debate in a month? There has not been a debate, and look at what impact that could be having on the polls, ’cause there haven’t been any primaries, either. But look at the impact no debates are having. So if Romney doesn’t do as expected, then of course the Republican Party establishment’s gonna panic and think, ‘Oh, my gosh, we need somebody new now,’ because none of the others are suitable to them. Including Newt. Newt’s not suitable to them, either. But the debates are gonna kick back in again once we get close to Michigan and then we’ve got Super Tuesday.

“The debates will kick back up and if Newt has stellar performance. Given the roller-coaster nature of the results of these primaries, anything can still happen.”

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Ron Paul overtakes Newt Gingrich in latest New Hampshire PPP poll

Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, continues his streak of strong poll finishes. Mr. Paul eclipsed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in the latest Public Policy Polling poll of likely New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary voters released Monday. Mr. Paul pulled in 19 percent of the votes to best Mr. Gingrich, who garnered 17 percent of the votes. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who has always been the front-runner in New Hampshire, finished in first place with 35 percent of the votes.

Mr. Paul can also celebrate two other recent poll victories. Mr. Paul won both an Insider Advantage and Public Policy Polling poll of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers Monday. Mr. Paul bested Mr. Romney by 3 percentage points in the PPP poll and by 6 percentage points in the Insider Advantage poll. The Iowa poll victories represent the first time that Mr. Paul has led in Iowa since he launched his campaign in May.

“Our new polls in Iowa and New Hampshire are very good news for Mitt Romney,” Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, said in a PPP press release.

“He’s headed for an easy win in New Hampshire and has a very good chance to get one in Iowa as well. That one two punch would probably end the Republican nomination fight before it even really starts,” Mr. Debnam added.

The good news for Mr. Paul is that Mr. Gingrich’s campaign seems to have lost momentum in New Hampshire. PPP reports that Mr. Gingrich favorability rating has fallen since the spring.

With Mr. Paul in the lead in Iowa, Mr. Gingrich’s campaign appears to be gasping for air. As it stands now, Mr. Paul has a healthy chance at a top-tier finish in Iowa and New Hampshire and growing chance of finishing first in Iowa and second in New Hampshire.

Public Policy Polling interviewed 1,235 likely voters in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary from December 16th to December 18th. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

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