Posts Tagged Monmouth University poll
Trump is at 41% in a Monmouth University poll out Monday, holding a wide advantage over his GOP challengers. His support was up from 28% in October.
In second was the rising Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 14%; followed by Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, at 10%. Ben Carson was at 9%, down 9 points from October, and all other candidates were in the low single digits.
A flurry of polls released in the last few days have pointed in sometimes conflicting directions as the first debate since the terror attacks in Paris and the shooting in San Bernardino approaches, but the Poll of Polls points to clear story lines emerging nationally and in the two states set to cast the first ballots of the 2016 presidential campaign.
The CNN Poll of Polls finds that across the five latest national, live-interviewer telephone polls, Trump tops Cruz 33% to 17% in the race for the Republican nomination. Behind Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (12%) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (11%) are the only other candidates with average support above 10%. Former Florida governor and one-time front-runner Jeb Bush averages 4%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie holds 3%, with businesswoman Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul all at 2%.
Trump’s lead in these national polls varies from 27 points in the most recent poll from Monmouth University to just five points in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted early last week. Some of that difference stems from sampling the CNN/ORC Poll and the Monmouth poll measure opinions among registered voters who say they are Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party, and both found Trump with larger leads than some polls using a different sampling method.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal, CBS News/NYT and Suffolk University/USA Today polls all interview those who say they plan to vote in their state’s Republican primary or caucus.
There is also timing, with the Monmouth poll the only one conducted entirely after Trump released his proposal calling for a ban on allowing Muslims to enter the United States.
Still, each of the five polls included in the national CNN Poll of Polls shows Trump holding a lead larger than its margin of sampling error.
While the national polling shows significant volatility, the Iowa poll results show even greater variation from poll to poll.
According to the CNN Poll of Polls averaging the six most recent live-interviewer telephone polls, the race in Iowa is a tight one between Cruz (27%) and Trump (25%). Rubio and Carson follow here as well, with 13% and 12% respectively, while Bush (5%) and Paul (4%) lag behind, trailed by four candidates at 2% each: Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee and Kasich.
Three of the six Iowa polls included here found Cruz with a significant lead over Trump, two found the two within margin of error of each other, and one found Trump ahead by a wide margin. The CNN/ORC poll which found Trump ahead is the oldest in the bunch, with interviews conducted between November 28 and December 6.
Surveying likely Iowa caucusgoers is one of the toughest challenges in election polling, as it is routinely one of the lowest turnout events in the entire presidential election process. In 2012 and 2008, only about 6% of the state’s registered voters participated in the Republican caucuses, and whether turnout this time around will be similar is a question that can’t be answered until the caucuses themselves are complete.
Some argue that Trump’s appeal among those who are not regular participants in the caucus process will drive turnout higher, much as the hotly contested presidential race on the Democratic side in 2008 did for that party. Others say Trump’s supporters’ allegiances aren’t strong enough to overcome the challenges inherent in participating in a caucus: Having to trudge out on a wintry night for several hours of political speeches and declare your support for your chosen candidate publicly.
In New Hampshire, a larger turnout means the task is somewhat easier, and the most recent polls are more closely aligned with each other. Five polls were included in the CNN Poll of Polls in New Hampshire, with the earliest including interviews conducted November 14 and the latest running through December 8.
The CNN Poll of Polls in New Hampshire finds Trump (26%) with a more than 2-to-1 advantage over his nearest competitor, Rubio, who at 12% is the only other candidate to average double-digits. Behind Rubio, a passel of candidates range in support from 7% to 9% Carson and Cruz each average 9%, Bush 8% and Kasich and Christie 7%.
That bunch-up around third place masks some clear trends that have developed in recent New Hampshire polling, Christie’s numbers are on the rise, with the governor averaging 11% in the two polls conducted after Thanksgiving compared with 5% in the three conducted earlier in November.
Carson, meanwhile, has been losing steam, dropping from 11% in the pre-Thanksgiving polls to 6% in the polling conducted more recently. Bush, Rubio and Cruz have been roughly steady in the Granite State lately.
The Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers finds Ben Carson and Donald Trump tied for the top spot. This marks the first time since July 26 that a poll in any of the first four nominating states has not shown Trump with a nominal lead. Not surprisingly, given the top two contenders in the poll, most Iowa Republicans prefer someone without a traditional political pedigree. At this early stage, though, the vast majority of voters say their eventual support could go to one of several other candidates in spite of their current preference.
When Iowa Republicans are asked who they would support in their local caucus, Ben Carson (23%) and Donald Trump (23%) tie for the top spot. The next tier of candidates includes Carly Fiorina (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%), followed by Scott Walker (7%), Jeb Bush (5%), John Kasich (4%), Marco Rubio (4%), and Rand Paul (3%). The last two Iowa caucus victors, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, each garner 2% of the vote. None of the other six candidates included in the poll register more than 1% support.
“These results mark a significant shake-up in the leaderboard from Monmouth’s Iowa poll taken before the first debate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Carson and, to a lesser extent, Fiorina have surged, while Walker has faded into the background.”
In mid-July, Walker was the front runner in Iowa, with Trump and Carson following behind. Since then, Walker’s support has dropped by 15 points, while Carson’s has increased by 15 points and Trump’s by 10 points. Support has also increased for Fiorina by 7 points since Monmouth’s last Iowa poll.
Only 12% of likely Republican caucusgoers say they are completely decided on which candidate they will support in February. Another 42% have a strong preference now but are willing to consider other candidates, 27% percent have a slight preference, and 20% say they are really undecided even if they are able to name a choice now. Just 1-in-4 voters (25%) say they have their choice narrowed down to one or two candidates, while most (54%) say they can see themselves caucusing for any of 3 to 4 candidates currently in the race. Another 17% say they are realistically considering giving their support to 5 or more candidates in field.
Among voters who say their current decision is strongly locked in, Trump leads with 30%, compared to 22% for Carson. Among those who say they only have a slight preference or are up in the air, 25% support Carson and 16% back Trump.
“Trump’s support is currently more solid than Carson’s, but Iowa voters are still considering quite a few candidates before they come to a final decision,” said Murray.
Iowa GOP caucus goers say that, regardless of who they support in the primary, the country needs a president from outside of government who can bring a new approach to Washington (66%) rather than someone with government experience who knows how to get things done (23%). Among those who prefer an outsider, more than two-thirds are backing one of the three candidates who have never held elected office – Trump (32%), Carson (26%), or Fiorina (13%). However, even among those who say the country needs someone with government experience, 30% are currently supporting one of these three candidates.
Looking at the fundamental strengths of leading candidates, Iowa Republicans now hold an almost universally positive opinion of Ben Carson at 81% favorable to just 6% unfavorable, compared to 63% favorable and 11% unfavorable in July. Carly Fiorina has also seen her numbers improve to 67% favorable and 8% unfavorable, up from 44% and 10% in July. John Kasich’s name recognition has also gone up but the gap between his positive and negative ratings remains similar at 32% favorable and 23% unfavorable, compared to 24% and 17% in the prior poll.
Donald Trump’s rating has ticked up slightly – now standing at 52% favorable and 33% unfavorable, compared to 47% and 35% in July – while the ratings for Scott Walker and Jeb Bush have taken a dip over the past month. Walker’s rating is now 64% favorable and 16% unfavorable, compared to 73% and 9% last month. Bush’s rating is now 32% favorable and 51% unfavorable, compared to 40% and 42% last month. Ted Cruz’s rating of 58% favorable and 21% unfavorable is similar to the 53% and 17% rating he held last month.
The poll also identified candidate support among key groups of GOP caucus goers, including:
Tea Party –Trump leads Carson 27% to 22% among Tea Party supporters, with Cruz at 16%. Among non-supporters of the Tea Party, Carson takes a 25% to 19% lead over Trump.
Ideology – Very conservative voters split their vote among Carson (24%), Trump (23%), and Cruz (16%). Somewhat conservative voters are most likely to back either Carson (25%) or Trump (23%). Moderate to liberal voters prefer Trump (26%), followed by Fiorina (18%) and Carson (17%).
Evangelicals – Evangelical voters favor Carson (29%) followed by Trump (23%). Non-evangelical voters prefer Trump (24%), Carson (18%), and Fiorina (13%).
Gender – Men prefer Trump (27%) over Carson (17%), while women prefer Carson (30%) over Trump (19%).
“After more than a month of Trump winning virtually every Republican demographic group, we’ve finally got a little variation in voting blocs to talk about,” said Murray.
Hawkeye State Republicans are divided on whether their final decision about who to support in the Republican primary will come down to the candidate’s positions on the issues (45%) or their personal qualities and experiences (45%).
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 27 to 30, 2015 with 405 Iowa voters likely to attend the Republican presidential caucuses in February 2016. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch.
“First of all, it’s a Monmouth University poll, so you guys should know by now that the Monmouth University polls [are] created just to aggravate me,” Christie reportedly told members of the press during a campaign stop in New Hampshire. “Just look at Patrick Murray and his tweets, there couldn’t be a less objective pollster about Chris Christie in America.”
Murray is the executive director of the polling institute at Monmouth University. In the institute’s latest poll, Christie placed among the bottom half of GOP candidates with just 4 percent support among likely Republican voters in New Hampshire.
“Despite spending much of his time [in New Hampshire], Christie does much better as a second choice rather than the first pick,” Murray said in a press release Tuesday.
The Garden State governor described Murray as a “liberal advocate” to reporters and questioned whether “anybody really care[s]” about the New Jersey-based institute’s polling data.
“You think nationally people are on the edge of their seat waiting for the Monmouth University poll to come out? I mean, please, stop,” Christie said, according to NJ Advance Media.
“I mean, there are polls and there are polls, guys, and part of the problem is that no one exercises any quality control over what you should listen to and not listen to and that’s why I’ve said all along, I don’t really care about that stuff,” he added.
Prior to Christie’s presidential announcement in late June, Murray had planned to ask New Jersey voters if their governor would “make a good president” since Christie had told Fox News’ Megyn Kelly that New Jerseyans were reluctant to support his presidential bid because they wanted him to remain in place as governor.
“When your favorability ratings are even lower than your job approval ratings, it suggests they don’t think you’re up to the job,” Murray had said at the time, according to NJ.com. “[I]t certainly doesn’t suggest they love you, which is really what the underlying this is: We love you so much that we want you back.”